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INFECTIOUS DISEASE

開始? 結束?

分析：Dr Siddharth Sridhar，臨床微生物及感染學專科醫生 | 翻譯：Helen YC LAW, MediPaper Medical Communications Ltd.| 更新：2020年2月22日  | In: Critical Care Medicine, Infectious Disease, Internal Medicine

Article Keywords

2019-nCoV, China, corona virus, COVID-19, pneumonia, WARS

English

香港的Covid-19病例每天增加，不免令人恐懼。然而，更具參考價值的分析是「流行病曲線」，它著重這些病例的症狀發作日期，而不是病例發現的日期。

與病例檢測日期不同，症狀發作日期可提供有關社區中病毒傳播的實際流行病學信息。因此，與每日病例數目相比，流行曲線可更全面地了解社區爆發的情況。

在這裡，我利用現有的資訊繪製了60宗Covid-19病例在香港的流行曲線（更新至 22/2/20 ）。我從衛生防護中心的新聞稿中取得症狀發作日期。

歸納出以下重點:

  1. 在農曆新年假期前後，香港已經發生了大規模的本地Covid-19傳播。
  2. Covid-19在香港的爆發是一種流行病，每3至6天出現一次連續的感染週期，接近病毒的平均潛伏期（高峰：28/1-30/1-> 1 / 2-4 / 2-> 7 / 2-8 / 2-> 10 / 2-12 / 2）。
  3. 令人鼓舞的是，儘管香港仍有大量容易受感染的人群，但於上週的高峰傳播規模小於之前的兩週。

下星期將確定這種流行病的發展方向。

衷心感謝衛生防護中心同事的辛勤工作。

抱持希望，佩戴口罩，注意安全。

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Disclaimer

This article is not medical advice. Patients should seek personal assessment by a licenced specialist. Physicians are recommended to read the full publication(s) as cited in the article before making medical decisions. This article does not supersede nor replace the published article(s).

© Copyright 2020 Dr Sridhar Siddharth – COVID-19 in Hong Kong: the end of the beginning?

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COVID-19 in Hong Kong: the end of the beginning?
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