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INFECTIOUS DISEASE

How infectious is novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?

Analyzed by: Dr Siddharth Sridhar, Specialist in Clinical Microbiology & Infection | Last updated: 3rd February 2020 | In: Critical Care Medicine, Infectious Disease, Internal Medicine

Article Keywords

2019-nCoV, China, corona virus, COVID-19, pneumonia, WARS

中文版

The Basic Reproduction Number (or Basic Reproductive Number) is a measure of how ‘infectious’ a pathogen is and how likely it is to spread through a community.

It is a simple number answering a simple question: ‘on average, how many individuals get the disease from one infected patient?’

For an outbreak to come under control, the basic reproduction number must be <1.

Here is the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV, as estimated by Wu JT et al in The Lancet. Comparisons with early phase SARS and measles are presented.

The assumptions, calculations and interpretations behind this simple number are quite complicated, but it is a useful metric.

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Disclaimer

This article is not medical advice. Patients should seek personal assessment by a licenced specialist. Physicians are recommended to read the full publication(s) as cited in the article before making medical decisions. This article does not supersede nor replace the published article(s).

© Copyright 2020 Dr Sridhar Siddharth – How infectious is novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?

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2019-nCoV: how stable are coronaviruses in the environment?
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Dr Siddharth Sridhar - 2019-nCoV - Summary of the situation in HK 2019-nCoV在本港的概況 COVID-19 2019-nCoV WuhanOutbreak Pneumonia
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2019-nCoV – Summary of the situation in HK as of Feb 6, 2020
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